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-------- Original Message --------
| Subject:
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IVPHC: H1N1 - Global Seroprevalence Data
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| Date:
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Wed, 29 Apr 2009 08:33:41 -0700 |
| From:
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"Stephen M. Apatow" <s.m.apatow@pathobiologics.org> |
| To:
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ivphc.wg@pathobiologics.org |
29 April 2009
IDIN: Pathobiologics International:
Biodefense Threat
Analysis & Communication Center
Subject: Pandemic Influenza:
Contingency Planning Discussion
Dear Colleagues:
In the context of the H1N1 WHO pandemic level 4 scenario, there are some
gaps that need to be filled. Since this outbreak was noted to start
around the time period of mid March (index case) in Mexico, with a 24 hour
incubation period, epidemiological analysis must begin from this point.
What was the potential spread from the index case, 24 hour incubation
period, population contact to cases in Mexico City, and a 24-48 hour global
spread scenario progressing through the same cycle.
Common sense would tell one that since we are 5 weeks into this, we
have already had population contacts, infection, and recovery prompting
the call for seroprevalence data.
As noted in regards to widespread global human exposure to H5N1 subclinical
or atypical infections [Avian influenza, human (140): atypical infections"
20060905.2522]
[There is still a deficit of comprehensive seroprevalence data to
establish the true frequency of subclinical infections and the relevance
of these sporadic accounts of atypical infections listed above. For a discussion
of this topic and an evaluation of some published seroprevalence studies,
the reader is referred to the ProMED-mail posts archived as Avian influenza,
human - Eurasia (41): multicountry 20060130.0290 and Avian influenza, human
- East Asia (195): China 20051208.3538. - Mod.CP]
China, Indonesia and numerous countries in Asia have stopped reporting
and sharing data on human H5N1 cases (including Human to Human), presenting
a serious threat to the international community in direct contradiction
to international law and the WHO
International Health Regulations. This challenge means that containment
and control of H1N1 could be treated the same way, in these countries, complicating
the international public health response.
Related:
-- Looking forward to your feedback.
Stephen M. Apatow
Founder, Director of Research and Development
Pathobiologics
International
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