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-------- Original Message --------
| Subject:
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IVPHC: H1N1 - Global Seroprevalence Data
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| Date:
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Wed, 29 Apr 2009 08:33:41 -0700 |
| From:
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"Stephen M. Apatow"
<s.m.apatow@pathobiologics.org> |
| To:
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ivphc.wg@pathobiologics.org |
29 April 2009
Contact: Stephen M.
Apatow
Founder, Director of Research & Development
Humanitarian Resource Institute (UN:NGO:DESA)
Humanitarian University Consortium Graduate Studies
Center for Medicine, Veterinary Medicine & Law
Phone: 203-668-0282
Email: s.m.apatow@humanitarian.net
Internet: www.humanitarian.net
Pathobiologics International
Internet: www.pathobiologics.org
IDIN:
Pathobiologics
International: Biodefense
Threat Analysis & Communication Center
Subject: Pandemic Influenza: Contingency Planning Discussion
Dear Colleagues:
In the context of the H1N1 WHO pandemic level 4 scenario, there are
some gaps that need to be filled. Since this outbreak was noted
to start around the time period of mid March (index case) in Mexico,
with a 24 hour incubation period, epidemiological analysis must begin
from this point.
What was the potential spread from the index case, 24 hour
incubation
period, population contact to cases in Mexico City, and a 24-48 hour
global
spread scenario progressing through the same cycle.
Common sense would tell one that since we are 5 weeks into this, we
have already had population contacts, infection, and recovery prompting
the call for seroprevalence data.
As noted in regards to widespread global human exposure to H5N1
subclinical or atypical infections [Avian influenza, human (140): atypical infections"
20060905.2522]
[There is still a deficit of comprehensive
seroprevalence data to establish the true frequency of subclinical
infections and the relevance of these sporadic accounts of atypical
infections listed above. For a discussion of this topic and an
evaluation of some published seroprevalence studies, the reader is
referred to the ProMED-mail posts archived as Avian influenza, human -
Eurasia (41): multicountry 20060130.0290 and Avian influenza, human -
East Asia (195): China 20051208.3538. - Mod.CP]
China, Indonesia and numerous countries in Asia have stopped reporting
and sharing data on human H5N1 cases (including Human to Human),
presenting a serious threat to the international community in direct
contradiction
to international law and the WHO
International Health Regulations. This challenge means that
containment and control of H1N1 could be treated the same way, in these
countries, complicating the international public health response.
Related:
-- Looking forward to your feedback.
###
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