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-------- Original Message --------
Subject: IVPHC: H1N1 - Global Seroprevalence Data
Date: Wed, 29 Apr 2009 08:33:41 -0700
From: "Stephen M. Apatow" <s.m.apatow@pathobiologics.org>
To: ivphc.wg@pathobiologics.org


29 April 2009

Contact: Stephen M. Apatow
Founder, Director of Research & Development
Humanitarian Resource Institute (UN:NGO:DESA)
Humanitarian University Consortium Graduate Studies
Center for Medicine, Veterinary Medicine & Law
Phone: 203-668-0282
Email: s.m.apatow@humanitarian.net
Internet: www.humanitarian.net

Pathobiologics International
Internet: www.pathobiologics.org


IDIN: Pathobiologics International: Biodefense Threat Analysis & Communication Center
Subject: Pandemic Influenza: Contingency Planning Discussion

Dear Colleagues:

In the context of the H1N1 WHO pandemic level 4 scenario, there are some gaps that need to be filled.  Since this outbreak was noted to start around the time period of mid March (index case) in Mexico, with a 24 hour incubation period, epidemiological analysis must begin from this point.  What was the potential spread from the index case, 24 hour incubation period, population contact to cases in Mexico City, and a 24-48 hour global spread scenario progressing through the same cycle.

Common sense would tell one that since we are 5 weeks into this, we have already had population contacts, infection, and recovery prompting the call for seroprevalence data.

As noted in regards to widespread global human exposure to H5N1 subclinical or atypical infections [Avian influenza, human (140): atypical infections" 20060905.2522]

[There is still a deficit of comprehensive seroprevalence data to establish the true frequency of subclinical infections and the relevance of these sporadic accounts of atypical infections listed above. For a discussion of this topic and an evaluation of some published seroprevalence studies, the reader is referred to the ProMED-mail posts archived as Avian influenza, human - Eurasia (41): multicountry 20060130.0290 and Avian influenza, human - East Asia (195): China 20051208.3538. - Mod.CP]

China, Indonesia and numerous countries in Asia have stopped reporting and sharing data on human H5N1 cases (including Human to Human), presenting a serious threat to the international community in direct contradiction to international law and the WHO International Health Regulations.  This challenge means that containment and control of H1N1 could be treated the same way, in these countries, complicating the international public health response.  

Related:

-- Looking forward to your feedback.

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